
CLARE Theory of Change: Narrative & Diagram
/

Problem statement/description of the context
The time to support urgent and anticipatory climate adaptation in vulnerable parts of the developing world is now. In 2018, an IPCC special report highlighted that only 12 years remained to keep average global temperatures between 1.50 and 20, as agreed under the Paris Agreement, and to avoid cascading and unpredictable environmental and social impacts. The following year, in 2019, the UN Environment’s Emissions Gap Report concluded that even if countries met their existing targets for reduced emissions, we were on track for an at least 3.20 increase above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. While we work to support efforts toward a net-zero emissions future, it is imperative that we simultaneously support developing country efforts to adapt in the short term to current climate impacts, while also preparing for future impacts.
The impacts of climate change are, and will be, disproportionately experienced by marginalized and vulnerable groups. Failure to adapt and build resilience to climate change will therefore undermine global efforts to alleviate poverty and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Gender responsive and socially equitable1 development is thus foundational to achieving the SDGs, and in achieving just transitions toward resilient societies. Climate adaptation research that purposefully promotes gender equality and social inclusion is therefore a necessary feature of efforts to enhance resilience.
Innovations that support the resilience and adaptive capacity of countries, communities and individuals are most effective when they are locally conceived, locally tested and locally owned. Yet, we find capacity shortages in our efforts to adapt to climate change in all regions of the world, and at all scales. It is apparent, therefore, that adaptation efforts will require diverse coalitions of actors who work together to share capacity across political boundaries and knowledge communities. These kinds of collaborations are time consuming for all involved, require facilitation and investment in their early stages, but are necessary to respond to the multiple scales of action required in the short and longer term.
Effective action to reduce the risks from climate change requires a systems approach. Such a systems approach should be based on a thorough understanding of the risks (hazards, differential vulnerability and exposure); decision making context, behavioural and psychological factors that influence receptivity and action, and the co-development of potential solutions.
Finally, the global community will continue to face new and dynamic challenges, as has been demonstrated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The impacts of such unprecedented challenges on efforts to respond to climate change in the developing world remain unknown. Therefore, programs such as CLARE must be designed in a responsive and adaptive way in order to support adaptation in the context of likely, albeit currently unknown, economic, political and social hardships that lie ahead for many vulnerable communities.
Goal
To enable socially inclusive and sustainable action to build resilience and reduce vulnerability to risks from climate change and natural hazards for the most vulnerable through action-oriented research and capacity strengthening.
Objectives
- To accelerate immediate action on climate adaptation and resilience by maximising the uptake of existing knowledge at multiple scales through development of climate services, tools, technology and innovation to inform policy and practice in the global South, including fragile states
- To drive the development of new knowledge to support adaptation and resilience of the most vulnerable through transdisciplinary research that builds novel coalitions of actors dedicated to supporting urgent and future climate action
- To enable capacity to support sustainable climate-resilient development in the global South along the whole chain from research to action, across scales and regions.
- To support socially inclusive practical action by addressing social, economic and political barriers to adaptation.
Assumptions
- Southern led research and brokered knowledge is more likely to have an impact on policy and practice in developing countries;
- Gender equality and social inclusion are integral to just and sustainable action: Transformative research and knowledge that addresses barriers experienced by the most vulnerable will increase resilience.
- Investment and capacity strengthening, at all levels, is necessary to support effective equitable, and socially inclusive climate adaptation to improve key stakeholder implementation of evidence-based climate action;
- Novel coalitions of actors from a variety of disciplines and sectors are more likely to ensure capacity strengthening along the climate value chain and to influence policy and practice at multiple scales;
- Strong investments on research uptake, including demand-led approaches, co-production and brokering is necessary to achieve impact;
- Co-ordinated and multi-level knowledge management, including investments in knowledge infrastructure and knowledge exchange processes is necessary to support adaptive program management and research uptake.
- Action is needed to address risks across timescales, from current weather and climate variability, through to longer term climate change over multiple decades;
- Transdisciplinary systems approaches to evaluating human-environment dynamics, impacts and potential adaptation and resilience-building responses will lead to more robust, inclusive and sustainable outcomes.
- A portfolio approach will facilitate collaboration and learning across contexts
Inputs
Approaches
CLARE links up short- and long-term issues by working across three interlinked themes:
- Understanding climate risk: Improving our understanding of the risks associated with climate and natural hazards that addresses gaps in the underpinning science
- Risk-informed early action: Supporting early action to reduce impacts of climate variability, reducing humanitarian impacts on lives and livelihoods
- Developing in a changing climate: Enabling long-term, sustainable, and equitable economic and social development in a changing climate.
Projects will encompass one or more of these themes, adhere to the ‘Adaptation Research Alliance Principles’ and ‘Principles for locally-led adaptation’ and promote the the following approaches that underpin CLARE’s efforts, and commit project to address some of the above listed assumptions:
- Support for research for impact through dedicated investments in research uptake, including demand-led approaches, co-production, and brokering. CLARE endorses the Adaptation Research for Impact Principles.
- Gender equality and inclusion are integral to just and sustainable action. Transformative research and knowledge that addresses barriers experienced by the most vulnerable is critical for increasing resilience to climate-related risks.
- Diverse coalitions and equitable partnerships are critical to link research to action and to strengthen capacities along the research-to-action value chain. CLARE recognizes that Southern-led research is more likely to have an impact on adaptation policy and practice in Africa and Asia-Pacific.
- Capacity strengthening across the research-to-action value chain to improve implementation of evidence-based climate action, and support effective equitable, and socially inclusive climate adaptation.
- Co-ordinated and multi-level knowledge management, including investments in knowledge infrastructure and knowledge exchange processes is necessary to support adaptive program management and research uptake.
- Transdisciplinary systems approaches to evaluating human-environment dynamics, impacts and potential adaptation and resilience-building responses will lead to more robust, inclusive and sustainable outcomes.
- Facilitate cross-program collaboration and learning through a portfolio approach.
Activities
The CLARE programme intends to generate impact through a coordinated portfolio of programmes and projects. As a whole, it includes three pillars which collectively work towards common outputs, outcomes and impact:
- CLARE Research, which commissions new substantive action-oriented research, and provides cross-programme infrastructure to support it.
- CLARE Services, which provides weather and climate services to inform investments and actions by the FCDO, UK government and wider stakeholders in partnership with the UK Met Office and others. These include regional reports that assess the climate variability and change in the context of socio-economic exposure and vulnerability. As well as monthly and seasonal forecasts to inform FCDOs humanitarian response preparedness.
- CLARE Partnerships, which supports strategic alliances on climate science and adaptation. Currently CLARE is supporting the Adaptation Research Alliance (ARA) and Climate Risks and Early Warning Systems (CREWS).
The UK’s FCDO is providing 85% of the CLARE Research pillar funding and is funding CLARE Services and Partnerships. Canada provides 15% match-funding towards CLARE Research and is its main delivery partner.
A common CLARE M&E Framework and Knowledge Management (KM) platform cut across the three pillars.
Outputs
- Collaborative partnerships of diverse cross-sectoral actors dedicated to gender-equitable and socially inclusive climate adaptation action are created and/or strengthened
- Capacity strengthening of researchers, knowledge brokers, policy makers and practitioners for gender transformative and socially inclusive climate adaptation research and action is provided
- New and improved science that supports socially inclusive climate adaptation action is produced
- Tools and technologies for decision-makers that supports socially inclusive climate adaptation action are co-developed and tested
- New and existing knowledge is brokered and disseminated to additional key stakeholders including decision-makers, practitioners, researchers and local communities (beyond those stakeholders targeted within the scope of the research projects).
Outcomes
- Increased adoption of actionable, socially inclusive climate adaptation solutions supporting the most vulnerable
- Strengthened agency of local governments, researchers, practitioners and key stakeholders to do and use gender equitable and socially inclusive research for climate adaptation action
Impact
Poor and marginalised communities in the global South are more resilient to weather, climate change and related natural hazards in the near and longer term.