This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are structurally dependent on food imports and vulnerable to climate, market, and geopolitical disruptions. Geographic dispersion, isolation, and exposure to climate extremes further constrain domestic food production. Food and nutrition security (FNS), therefore, remains a critical challenge for island nations. This study conducts the first biomass focussed Material Flow Analysis (MFA^biomass) for any island nation in the Indian Ocean – the Maldives – from 1976 to 2023. The MFA^biomass results are extended with a NOVA-based assessment of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) for 2015–2023. Results reveal a substantial increase in food imports from 0.018 Mt in 1976 to 0.349 Mt in 2023 (+ 1,840%), with import dependency increasing from 19.6% to 77.5%. On a dietary level, the consumption of animal products increased while crops declined. The share of UPFs also increased in the same period, accounting for approximately 26–33% of daily dietary energy intake. Import composition shifted with declines in ready meals and increases in products such as sauces and confectionery, likely responding to declining affordability and health messaging. These trends indicate that the Maldivian food system has evolved toward strong external dependence and changing dietary composition. The current system heightens exposure to climate risks and external shocks, while increasing the prevalence of non-communicable diseases from UPF consumptions. These findings illustrate how import-dependent food systems shape diet quality and long-term socioeconomic vulnerability. Strengthening FNS will require systems-based approaches that combine protection of domestic resources, enhance institutional support for local farmers and fishers, and decrease reliance on imports.