Recent years have seen tropical cyclones of unprecedented impact in southern Africa and
Madagascar. Tropical cyclone Idai in March 2019 became the first system to kill more than
1000 people in African history, with the death toll estimated to have been higher than 1500
across Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. Idai reached Category 4 intensity in the
Mozambique Channel, before weakening to make landfall as a Category 3 system at Beira. In
February and March 2023 tropical cyclone Freddy became the world’s longest-lived tropical
cyclone. It reached Category 5 intensity over the central Indian Ocean before impacting on
Madagascar as a Category 2 and in Mozambique as a Category 1 system. About 1 500 people
are estimated to have died in Freddy’s path, across Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi,
making it only the second tropical system in history to take more than 1000 lives in Africa.

The devastation caused by tropical cyclones such as Idai and Freddy led to the perception
that tropical cyclones in the region are becoming more intense and destructive. This is being
explored in the CLARE programme’s project REPRESA (Resilience and Preparedness to
tropical cyclones across Southern Africa). Its Work Package 1 (WP1) is assessing the
attributes of tropical cyclones (i.e. intensity, frequency, tracks, rates of intensification and
associated precipitation) in the southwest Indian Ocean under current and future climate
change. Our focus is particularly on systems that impact on Madagascar, Mozambique and
Malawi.