Seasonal Climate Outlooks

Following the El Nino event in 2015, the Met Office worked with the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the University of Reading to design a new service which would provide insights into the upcoming season and enable more lead time for decision making. The service focuses on the upcoming 6 months and provides details of potential differences in weather compared to a ‘typical’ season. It represents the month-, season- and 4-6 month ahead predictions for rainfall and temperature to feed into wider humanitarian planning in a number of countries across the world. It provides an overview of the outputs of all the Global Producing Centres (GPCs) for long-range forecasts across the world.

Learn more: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/international-development/climate-outlook.

Flood Early Warning Research

Fluvial and coastal (surge) flooding is one of the most devastating hazards, often featuring multi-hazard events, including strong winds and heavy rainfall. The humanitarian impacts of these events are often long lasting. When driven by tropical cyclones, the devastation can be even larger due to catastrophic wind speeds, with loss of life, loss of livelihoods, and the spread of disease.

Through CLARE Services Pillar, FCDO is piloting further development, and testing service delivery, of impact-oriented flood early warning advice for international humanitarian actors. This advice is provided in advance of, and during, flood events and include an assessment of likely flooding risk (i.e. hazard, exposure and vulnerability) related to ongoing or upcoming cyclones in LDCs. It is provided in the form of briefs that are produced through the work of experts from a consortium of academic, consultancy and operational centres. These briefs help FCDO and humanitarian actors anticipate which areas are likely to be hit the hardest and inform their responses, using cutting-edge and innovative science, research and data to improve decision making and interventions, and communicating this in a way that is actionable and leads to a positive impact on the ground. They use and build on underpinning research from an earlier phase funded by FCDO-predecessor Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) Research Programme.

The research consortium includes scientists from across the University of Reading, the University of Bristol, HR Wallingford, the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and DAI Global.

The outcomes of the flood forecasting work have consistently led to improvements of decision making, including within international agencies including OCHA, IFRC. The use of these bulletins has improved interventions, helping reduce the scale of adverse humanitarian impact.

Some of the details of this innovative approach can be seen in Key Factors Influencing the Severity of Fluvial Flood Hazard from Tropical Cyclones in: Journal of Hydrometeorology Volume 22 Issue 7 (2021)

Climate Risk Services

The CLARE Climate Risk Services focus on long-term climate risk information. They include Climate Risk Reports that aim to contextualise the climate variability and change in the context of the socio-economic exposure and vulnerability in ODA-eligible regions of Africa and Asia, produced through a collaboration between the Met Office and ODI, and funded by FCDO. The reports provide accessible and authoritative evidence to UK Government on climate risk in support of adaptation and resilience planning and investments. They present a top-level regional overview of potential risks to development associated with climate and climate change out to the 2050s, signposting to key issues and complexities.

The reports look at climate risk as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Each report captures critical information about the weather and climate which is evaluated in the context of the lives and livelihoods of the populations affected. This risk-based approach helps to frame the challenges of climate change in a way that can best inform action. The climate risk reports frame evidence to inform development programming and actions that support climate resilience in current and future climate, and in current and future complex human-environment systems.

These reports are aimed to inform UK Government long-term planning and design of development programmes, including supporting the compliance of these programmes with mandatory climate risk assurance. For example, in 2023 the Central African Risk Report has been used by to support development of Congo Basin Business Case, and the Maritime report has informed a proposal to enhance the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on economically important fisheries and ecosystems rich in biodiversity on the Sunda Shelf through demonstrating the value of shelf seas modelling.

Climate Risk Reports have been produced for the following regions:

• Southeast Asia Risk Report (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Viet Nam);
• Central and South Asia Risk Report (The Central Asia region includes northern Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan; the South Asia region includes southern Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka);
• MENA and Western Sahara Risk Report (Lebanon, Jordan, Occupied Palestinian Territories, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab, Emirates, Oman, Yemen; Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Western Sahara);
• Sahel Risk Report (Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad);
• East Africa Risk Report (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda);
• West Africa Risk Report (Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria);
• Central Africa Risk Report (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea);
• Southern Africa Risk Report (Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Seychelles, Comoros, Mauritius, Madagascar, Eswatini, Lesotho, South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe);
• Guidance for Understanding Climate-Related Risks to Development in Maritime Environments, looking at marine ecosystems, nationally important fishing territories, coastal inundation hazards, and coastal and offshore energy production.