Contributing authors to this blog included: Ms. Edith Abilogo (PALM-TREEs), Dr. Chukwuemeka J. Diji (GRIN), Prof. Japhet Kashaigili (CLARITY), Dr. Dominic Kathiya (PASSAGE), Dr. Caroline King-Okumu, Dr. Nicholas Otienoh Oguge (BIMA) 

Globally, the cost of droughts is rising, taking an environmental, economic, and humanitarian toll. A recent OECD study found that the average drought episode in 2025 is at least twice as costly as in 2000. The same study also found evidence that underscores the social impacts of droughts, which influence migration patterns and may contribute to conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

Today, more than half the world’s population is exposed to drought (UNCCD, 2025). As climate change makes extreme climatic events more intense and frequent, strengthening drought resilience must be an urgent global priority (IPCC, 2023). At the end of this year, countries will meet in Panama to review preparations for the first ever global reporting on progress in building resilience to droughts (UNCCD. 2025). 

June 17 marks the World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought – an opportunity to recognize the significant investments that communities are making in adapting to deepening drought risks. Across the CLARE research portfolio, work is underway to co-create solutions that enable drought resilience and meet the needs of the world’s most vulnerable. 

The effects of drought in CLARE countries 

Drought was on the agenda at CLARExchange 2025, the first in-person gathering of the CLARE global community, which was co-hosted by FCDO and IDRC together with the University of Zambia. At CLARExchange, participants heard from Hon. Minister for Green Economy and Environment, Mr. Mike Elton Mposha, speaking on behalf of His Excellency the President of the Republic of Zambia, Mr. Hakainde Hichilema. Mr. Mposha highlighted the devastating impacts of the 2023/2024 drought, which affected power supplies as well as food production and other economic activities in Zambia as well as the wider Southern Africa region (UNDRR, 2024; World Weather Attribution, 2023; NASA Earth Observatory, 2024). 

“As Zambians, we have witnessed the devastating effects of extreme weather events— from floods that wash away our homes, schools, clinics and livelihoods, to droughts that leave our fields barren, and erratic rainfall that disrupts our agricultural cycles and wipe out our renewable hydroelectricity generation capacity from our drying dams due to record-breaking droughts.” – Hon. Minister for Green Economy and Environment, Mr. Mike Elton Mposha, on behalf of His Excellency the President of the Republic of Zambia, Mr. Hakainde Hichilema 

Similarly, other countries with CLARE projects have recently experienced extreme droughts, such as countries in the Horn of Africa and India (Kimutai et al., 2025; The Economic Times, 2024). 

Climate-resilient development in the context of extreme drought 

Confronted with this mounting evidence, CoP30 President André Corrêa do Lago has observed that the climate debate has shifted toward a new form of denial – no longer dismissing climate change itself, which is now widely accepted as obviously happening – but rather denying the idea that economies can be reorganized to thrive and grow through proactive use of foresight, adaptation, and cooperation, rather than crisis management (The Guardian, 2025). 

This new form of “adaptation denial” means that positive evidence of successful climate-resilient development outcomes from adaptation is more urgently needed than ever. Following significant investments in adaptation by communities and individuals at the local level, some such evidence may be emerging.  

Climate-resilient development and drought: the case of Kenya 

According to Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031-2035), the losses sustained between 2020 and 2023 by the meteorologically worst drought in 40 years were significantly less than those sustained by a less meteorologically severe drought that occurred between 2009 and 2011. Both were costly: the drought that ended in 2023 led to economic losses exceeding USD 650 million and reduced the GDP growth rate from 5.8% in 2021 to 4.9% in 2022. This loss was significant, but was notably less than in 2011, when the less severe drought caused over USD 11 billion in damages and slowed GDP by an average of 2.8 percentage points per year (GFDRR, 2017). 

As the situation is complex, and many factors are involved, it is necessary to compare time series of additional data and evidence appearing in the Early Warning Bulletins published by Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority, which document changes on the ground over the past two decades.  

The available data and evidence underline the need for research and analysis to investigate whether there has been a real shift toward climate-resilient development in Kenya – and, if so, which investments by which actors have made the difference. During a 2018 drought, researchers argued that the lion’s share of investments in resilience-building had been made by local resource user associations. Similarly, a mid-term evaluation of the National Drought Management Authority observed that by devolving governance structures to work in alignment with local groups, national drought management efforts had been more successful than they had been under the more top-down governance approach taken during the 2009-2011 drought. 

Further research is needed to understand to what extent a shift toward more climate resilient development might be taking place in Kenya and, if so, what other countries and communities could learn from the success. 

How CLARE projects are strengthening drought resilience 

Hear from several CLARE research projects on how they are working with communities to co-design solutions to advance climate adaptation and strenghten drought resilience.  

BIMA: Turning Drought Insurance into a Climate Adaptation Tool in Kenya’s ASALs 

In Kenya’s Tana River County, pastoralist communities are at the forefront of climate change, grappling with recurrent droughts, land degradation, and livestock losses that undermine livelihoods and provoke resource-based conflicts. The BIMA Project aims to address these growing challenges through an innovative, community-driven approach to drought resilience, anchored in an enhanced Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) model that integrates advanced satellite data with local knowledge systems. 

Using a hybrid trigger system – incorporating satellite imagery, CHIRPS rainfall data, ten local weather stations, and 108 forage-monitoring sub-plots – BIMA seeks to significantly enhance the accuracy and fairness of insurance payouts. This initiative will help reduce basis risk to ensure that payouts more accurately reflect local drought conditions and reach affected households before herd losses become irreversible. 

A distinct feature of BIMA is its emphasis on anticipatory action and equity. Early-warning signals will be transformed into timely and actionable information via the 3Map IMS platform, complemented by indigenous climate indicators provided by local knowledge experts and trained community scouts. Additionally, BIMA’s design prioritizes gender-responsive inclusion, ensuring that women, who play critical roles in managing household assets, benefit equally from insurance solutions. 

In tandem with financial protection, BIMA is promoting sustainable rangeland management by linking payouts to community-endorsed practices that preserve ecosystems and minimize the need for distress livestock sales. This strategy will not only enhance household resilience but also contribute to land restoration and climate adaptation objectives in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid regions. 

As the project evolves, BIMA will provide a scalable model for climate risk financing that merges technology, local participation, and ecosystem stewardship. This approach aligns with Kenya’s and IGAD’s drought resilience strategies, which prioritize climate adaptation, gender equality, and financial inclusion. 

CLARITY: Dodoma T-Lab 

The CLARITY project in Dodoma, Tanzania, addresses the escalating challenges of desertification and drought through an inclusive, science-informed, and community-based approach.  

At the heart of the project are Transformational Laboratories (T-Labs), which serve as collaborative innovation spaces where local stakeholders, scientists, policymakers, and community members co-create equitable and sustainable development pathways in dryland areas that are resilient to climate change. These T-Labs support the development of transformational pathways by integrating scientific modelling of climate, land use, and groundwater systems with local knowledge, enhancing understanding of human-water systems and informing effective decision-making.  

The project places particular emphasis on groundwater recharge, access, and monitoring. By surveying and instrumenting Hombolo Dam, it increases rainwater harvesting capacity for irrigation and livestock production. At the same time, the construction of shallow wells improves water access for marginalized communities, particularly women and pastoralists. Para-hydrologists—community members trained in water monitoring—play a key role in data collection and awareness-raising, ensuring local voices shape water resource management.  

Gender is mainstreamed throughout the project, acknowledging that both individual and collective water use behaviours are influenced by gender roles and access to resources. Through targeted training and leadership opportunities, women are empowered to participate in water governance and land restoration. The project also promotes sustainable land management practices, including catchment protection, to enhance groundwater recharge and combat land degradation. Continuous groundwater monitoring supports adaptive management and ensures water use remains within sustainable limits.  

By aligning scientific tools with participatory governance, the project strengthens resilience not only in ecosystems but also in the social fabric of dryland communities, offering a replicable model for climate adaptation that reinforces both environmental sustainability and human well-being in the face of growing climate stress. 

GRIN 

GRIN is helping to strengthen resilience to drought by working with several communities in the Savannah region in Nigeria and Ghana to understand household exposure to, and attitude towards, the climate risks of drought and crop failure, as well as farm level decision making and the potential for crop insurance. In Ghana the GRIN project works in three communities Dua, Adaboje and Akansennga in Bongo district in the Upper East Region of Ghana. The study in Nigeria, covered two local government areas of Kano state –  Tofa and Rimingado local government areas. In each of these local government areas three farming communities were identified, in Tofa local government area; Yansabo, Doka and Wangara communities while in Rimingado local government area; Yalwandanziyal, Rimingado and Zango communities. 

PALM-TREEs 

The PALM-TREEs project is dedicated to tackling the urgent challenges of drought and heat stress across sub-Saharan Africa, where extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common. According to the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, these events can have devastating impacts, especially when multiple hazards occur simultaneously. In Turkana County, Kenya, communities are grappling with severe water scarcity and long-term effects on mental health and well-being. In KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, the interplay of heat stress and gender-based violence further complicates the vulnerabilities faced by local populations. Meanwhile, in Central Africa, women in regions like Guider and Foumbot, Cameroon, are experiencing significant disruptions to agricultural productivity due to floods and droughts. In Ghana’s Volta River basin, the project examines how climate extremes threaten water management and farming practices, exacerbating existing challenges. 

Employing a combined physical and social sciences methodology, the PALM-TREEs project aims to understand the differential impacts of drought and heat stress based on gender and social identities throughout the region. In Lagos, Nigeria, the focus is on the health and livelihood challenges faced by communities in informal settlements as temperatures rise. Similarly, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the project assesses how extreme weather events exacerbate vulnerabilities and disrupt daily life. By utilizing qualitative and quantitative research methods, such as interviews and vulnerability assessments alongside improved hazard metrics, the project seeks to develop tailored adaptation strategies and climate information that empower local communities. The findings will be shared with policymakers and stakeholders, fostering inclusive planning that enhances resilience and addresses inequalities. Ultimately, the PALM-TREEs project aspires to strengthen community capacities to adapt to the growing challenges cause by both the current and future climate across diverse African contexts. 

PASSAGE 

PASSAGE aims to build the resilience of pastoral communities through inclusive, cross-scale risk narratives and anticipatory action plans based on predictive multi-hazard impact-based forecasts. The project brings together a diverse team of pastoral communities, local government, and civil society, who jointly address several gaps by co-developing inclusive and cross-scale risk narratives and anticipatory action (AA) plans based on predictive multi-hazard impact-based forecasts. 

The project specifically focuses on the cross-border areas of the IGAD region, as these areas host the most vulnerable pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. It is implemented in three IGAD cross-border areas, clusters I, II and III which cover the cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya.  

PASSAGE’s work addresses the challenges of desertification and drought by implanting mitigation measures under the broad umbrellas of: 

1. Risk modelling and forecasting: Mapping short-term surface water for seasonal analysis across the three clusters, collecting data on invasive plant species and random forests to generate sample products for mapping, groundwater use and demand forecasts by equipping mechanized borehole pumps. 

2. Anticipatory Action in cross-border settings. 

3. Risk communication and community engagement: Participating in the Livestock Sector group in the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOF) to advocate for evidence-based production of advisories on disease surveillance, fodder production, pasture availability & condition, livestock movement patterns, livestock trade infrastructure, water harvesting, and pest control. These are downscaled to the communities, via the sub-Climate Outlook Forum, for informed decision making. 

4. Capacity building: Supporting PhD and MSc students with the aim of developing knowledge products on AA for dissemination. 

Other projects from across the CLARE portfolio are also addressing the challenges of desertification and drought, including:  

• BASIN aims to promote water security for vulnerable communities in African countries, including strengthening resilience to drought, by examining adaptation behaviours and practices to identify insights and practical actions that address intersectional concerns and can be implemented on scale. Learn more about how BASIN is boosting resilience of dryland communities through Sand River Utilization and Local Water Harvesting Innovations in Central Tanzania.

• In South Asia, SUCCESS/CLAPS generates new knowledge on the effectiveness of adaptations that critically involve migration, mobility and immobility as a strategy for adapting to droughts and other climate phenomena. 

Looking forward

Resilience to climate change and resilience to drought go hand-in-hand. As CLARE projects demonstrate, effective and inclusive adaptation solutions that are co-created with vulnerable communities hold the potential to shape a future that is drought- and climate-resilient.